Customer Lifetime Value Prediction Using Embeddings

We describe the Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV) prediction system deployed at ASOS.com, a global online fashion retailer. CLTV prediction is an important problem in e-commerce where an accurate estimate of future value allows retailers to effectively allocate marketing spend, identify and nurture high value customers and mitigate exposure to losses. The system at ASOS provides daily estimates of the future value of every customer and is one of the cornerstones of the personalised shopping experience. The state of the art in this domain uses large numbers of handcrafted features and ensemble regressors to forecast value, predict churn and evaluate customer loyalty. Recently, domains including language, vision and speech have shown dramatic advances by replacing handcrafted features with features that are learned automatically from data. We detail the system deployed at ASOS and show that learning feature representations is a promising extension to the state of the art in CLTV modelling. We propose a novel way to generate embeddings of customers, which addresses the issue of the ever changing product catalogue and obtain a significant improvement over an exhaustive set of handcrafted features

Disseminated Well-Differentiated Gastro-Entero-Pancreatic Tumors Are Associated with Metabolic Syndrome

The association of well-differentiated gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (WD GEP-NETs) with metabolic syndrome (MetS), abdominal obesity, and fasting glucose abnormalities was recently described. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the presence of MetS or any MetS individual component was also influenced by GEP-NET characteristics at diagnosis. A cohort of patients with WD GEP-NETs (n = 134), classified according to primary tumor location (gastrointestinal or pancreatic), pathological grading (G1 (Ki67 ≤ 2%) and G2 (>3 ≤ 20%) (WHO 2010), disease extension (localized, loco-regional, and metastatic), and presence of hormonal secretion syndrome (functioning/non-functioning), was evaluated for the presence of MetS criteria. After adjustment for age and gender, the odds of having MetS was significantly higher for patients with WD GEP-NET grade G1 (OR 4.35 95%CI 1.30–14.53) and disseminated disease (OR 4.52 95%CI 1.44–14.15). GEP-NET primary tumor location or secretory syndrome did not influence the risk for MetS. None of the tumor characteristics evaluated were associated with body mass index, fasting plasma glucose category, or any of the individual MetS components. Patients with GEP-NET and MetS depicted a higher risk of presenting a lower tumor grade and disseminated disease. The positive association between MetS and GEP-NET characteristics further highlights the potential link between the two conditions.This work did not receive any funding either from public, commercial, or nonprofit agencies

Disseminated Well-Differentiated Gastro-Entero-Pancreatic Tumors Are Associated with Metabolic Syndrome

The association of well-differentiated gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (WD GEP-NETs) with metabolic syndrome (MetS), abdominal obesity, and fasting glucose abnormalities was recently described. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the presence of MetS or any MetS individual component was also influenced by GEP-NET characteristics at diagnosis. A cohort of patients with WD GEP-NETs (n = 134), classified according to primary tumor location (gastrointestinal or pancreatic), pathological grading (G1 (Ki67 ≤ 2%) and G2 (>3 ≤ 20%) (WHO 2010), disease extension (localized, loco-regional, and metastatic), and presence of hormonal secretion syndrome (functioning/non-functioning), was evaluated for the presence of MetS criteria. After adjustment for age and gender, the odds of having MetS was significantly higher for patients with WD GEP-NET grade G1 (OR 4.35 95%CI 1.30-14.53) and disseminated disease (OR 4.52 95%CI 1.44-14.15). GEP-NET primary tumor location or secretory syndrome did not influence the risk for MetS. None of the tumor characteristics evaluated were associated with body mass index, fasting plasma glucose category, or any of the individual MetS components. Patients with GEP-NET and MetS depicted a higher risk of presenting a lower tumor grade and disseminated disease. The positive association between MetS and GEP-NET characteristics further highlights the potential link between the two conditions.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Real-time monitoring of specific oxygen uptake rates of embryonic stem cells in a microfluidic cell culture device

Oxygen plays a key role in stem cell biology as a signaling molecule and as an indicator of cell energy metabolism. Quantification of cellular oxygen kinetics, i.e. the determination of specific oxygen uptake rates (sOURs), is routinely used to understand metabolic shifts. However current methods to determine sOUR in adherent cell cultures rely on cell sampling, which impacts on cellular phenotype. We present real-time monitoring of cell growth from phase contrast microscopy images, and of respiration using optical sensors for dissolved oxygen. Time-course data for bulk and peri-cellular oxygen concentrations obtained for Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) and mouse embryonic stem cell (mESCs) cultures successfully demonstrated this non-invasive and label-free approach. Additionally, we confirmed non-invasive detection of cellular responses to rapidly changing culture conditions by exposing the cells to mitochondrial inhibiting and uncoupling agents. For the CHO and mESCs, sOUR values between 8 and 60 amol cell(-1) s(-1) , and 5 and 35 amol cell(-1) s(-1) were obtained, respectively. These values compare favorably with literature data. The capability to monitor oxygen tensions, cell growth, and sOUR, of adherent stem cell cultures, non-invasively and in real time, will be of significant benefit for future studies in stem cell biology and stem cell-based therapies

Accuracy of prediction models for long-term type 2 diabetes remission after gastric bypass

AimTo evaluate the accuracy of DiaBetter, DiaRem, Ad-DiaRem and 5y-Ad-DiaRem scores' at predicting T2D remission 10 or more years after surgery.MethodsPatients with obesity and T2D (n = 126) submitted to RYGB with 10 or more years of follow-up. It was a unicentric trial. Pre-operative anthropometric and clinical data was retrieved to calculate DiaRem, DiaBetter, Ad-DiaRem and 5y-Ad-DiaRem scores, while a hospital visit was conducted to assess current diabetes status. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated as estimate of the scores' accuracy to predict long-term T2D remission.ResultsAmong the entire cohort (n = 126), 70 subjects (55.6%) achieved and maintained T2D remission 10 or more years after RYGB. The 5y-Ad-DiaRem score was the one that depicted the highest discriminative power (AUROC = 0.838) to predict long-term T2D remission when compared to DiaBetter (AUROC = 0.735), DiaRem (AUROC = 0.721) and Ad-DiaRem (AUROC = 0.720).ConclusionThe score with highest accuracy to predict long-term T2D remission after RYGB surgery was the 5y-Ad-DiaRem. Yet, the available scores accuracy to predict T2D remission in the long term is still suboptimal, highlighting the unmet need for a better scoring system

Pain Intensity and Time to Death of Cancer Patients Referred to Palliative Care

Introdução: A dor é uma experiência frequente nos doentes com cancro, especialmente naqueles em fase final de vida. Com este estudo, pretendemos estudar a intensidade de dor nos doentes com cancro avançado, referenciados aos cuidados paliativos, analisar os factores associados à ocorrência de dor moderada ou intensa e avaliar a sua relação com o tempo até à morte destes doentes. Material e Métodos: Estudo prospectivo observacional que incluiu consecutivamente todos os doentes referenciados aos cuidados paliativos com tumores sólidos metastizados e sem tratamento oncológico específico. Foi considerada a intensidade de dor da escala de Edmonton, de acordo com a graduação zero a 10, onde 0 = ausência de dor e 10 = máxima dor possível. Resultados: Entre outubro de 2012 e junho de 2015, foram incluídos 301 doentes, com idade mediana de 69 anos (37 - 94), 57% homens e 64,8% dos doentes com performance status 3/4. Aproximadamente 42% dos doentes apresentaram dor ≥ 4 e cerca de 74,4% estavam medicados com analgesia opióide. A intensidade de dor esteve associada ao performance status dos doentes, de acordo com a análise multivariável (OR: 1,7; IC 95%: 1,0 - 2,7; p = 0,045). A mediana do tempo de sobrevivência foi de 37 dias (IC 95%: 28 - 46), tendo os doentes com dor moderada ou intensa (intensidade de dor ≥ 4) uma mediana de sobrevivência de 29 dias (IC 95%: 21 - 37), comparada com os 49 dias (IC 95%: 35 - 63) para os doentes sem dor ou dor ligeira (p = 0,022). Discussão: O performance status, para além de ter estado associado a uma maior intensidade de dor, esteve associado a um menor tempo até à morte dos doentes com cancro avançado referenciados aos cuidados paliativos. Também o internamento, a presença de metastização intra-abdominal e a analgesia opióide estiveram associados de forma negativa ao tempo até à morte destes doentes. Conclusão: A dor oncológica continua a ser um problema clinicamente relevante nos doentes com cancro avançado

Using florbetapir positron emission tomography to explore cerebrospinal fluid cut points and gray zones in small sample sizes

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to assess the feasibility of determining Alzheimer's disease cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cut points in small samples through comparison with amyloid positron emission tomography (PET). METHODS: Twenty-three individuals (19 patients, four controls) had CSF measures of amyloid beta (Aβ)1-42 and total tau/Aβ1-42 ratio, and florbetapir PET. We compared CSF measures with visual and quantitative (standardized uptake value ratio [SUVR]) PET measures of amyloid. RESULTS: Seventeen of 23 were amyloid-positive on visual reads, and 14 of 23 at an SUVR of ≥1.1. There was concordance (positive/negative on both measures) in 20 of 23, of whom 19 of 20 were correctly classified at an Aβ1-42 of 630 ng/L, and 20 of 20 on tau/Aβ1-42 ratio (positive ≥0.88; negative ≤0.34). Three discordant cases had Aβ1-42 levels between 403 and 729 ng/L and tau/Aβ1-42 ratios of 0.54-0.58. DISCUSSION: Comparing amyloid PET and CSF biomarkers provides a means of assessing CSF cut points in vivo, and can be applied to small sample sizes. CSF tau/Aβ1-42 ratio appears robust at predicting amyloid status, although there are gray zones where there remains diagnostic uncertainty

Moduli Stabilization and Cosmology of Type IIB on SU(2)-Structure Orientifolds

We consider type IIB flux compactifications on six-dimensional SU(2)-structure manifolds with O5- and O7-planes. These six-dimensional spaces allow not only for F_3 and H_3 fluxes but also for F_1 and F_5 fluxes. We derive the four-dimensional N=1 scalar potential for such compactifications and present one explicit example of a fully stabilized AdS vacuum with large volume and small string coupling. We then discuss cosmological aspects of these compactifications and derive several no-go theorems that forbid dS vacua and slow-roll inflation under certain conditions. We also study concrete examples of cosets and twisted tori and find that our no-go theorems forbid dS vacua and slow-roll inflation in all but one of them. For the latter we find a dS critical point with \epsilon numerically zero. However, the point has two tachyons and eta-parameter \eta \approx -3.1.Comment: 35 pages + appendices, LaTeX2e; v2: numerical dS extremum added, typos corrected, references adde

A Standardised Procedure for Evaluating Creative Systems: Computational Creativity Evaluation Based on What it is to be Creative

Computational creativity is a flourishing research area, with a variety of creative systems being produced and developed. Creativity evaluation has not kept pace with system development with an evident lack of systematic evaluation of the creativity of these systems in the literature. This is partially due to difficulties in defining what it means for a computer to be creative; indeed, there is no consensus on this for human creativity, let alone its computational equivalent. This paper proposes a Standardised Procedure for Evaluating Creative Systems (SPECS). SPECS is a three-step process: stating what it means for a particular computational system to be creative, deriving and performing tests based on these statements. To assist this process, the paper offers a collection of key components of creativity, identified empirically from discussions of human and computational creativity. Using this approach, the SPECS methodology is demonstrated through a comparative case study evaluating computational creativity systems that improvise music